Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Friday 18 October 2013

Winds of Change ?



Hardly a week passes without some Newspapers or TV Channels announcing the results of their “ Opinion Polls “ of voters re :


Ø  Forthcoming State Elections


Ø  Narendra Modi  vs  Rahul Gandhi


Ø  NDA  vs  UPA  vs  Third Front …..etc


Not only the number of voters being polled increasing but even the coverage is increasing


Questions being asked are mostly open-ended


But then , all Statistical Sampling carry the danger of a bias getting introduced through,


Ø  Conducting Agency


Ø  Sample Size


Ø  No of Options ( Centralization Tendency )


Ø  Leading questions


Ø  Stratification of people being polled….etc


Given all of these limitations , there can be no doubt that the Opinion Polls are pointers to the shape of things to come


Whereas contesting parties – and candidates – can afford to debate the accuracy of the exact “ Numbers “ , they may ignore the “ Trend “ at their own peril !


The trend is very clear ,


Ø  In Delhi , Aam Aadmi Party ( AAP ) will come to power with an absolute majority


Ø  In other 4 States , BJP will improve its share


Ø  At the Centre ( in 2014 National Elections ) , NDA may form the Government thru a coalition


On 4th Dec , people of Delhi will re-confirm these trends by electing 40 + AAP candidates


The Wind of Change is an ill-wind that blows Congress no good  !



·          hemen  parekh  (  19  Oct  2013  )



   

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