Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Export Strategy ?



News reports are agonizing over the declining figures of exports for the past 6 months - month after month

There is no doubt , among many corrective actions being undertaken by the Central Government , promoting exports from MSME , is one

No need to look far, for a reason for this emphasis

Just look at how much MSME in our neighboring countries are exporting :

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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country         /     No of  MSME     /     Ave Export / year ( $ )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Singapore     /    9,296                /       6.74    Million

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Malaysia       /    28,840               /       2.05    Million 
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S.Korea        /    2.9 million           /       45 , 000

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India            /   30 million        /          4, 000

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Now , even if each of our MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would amount to ,

$ 40,000*30 million  !


Currently each MSME ( on an average ) employs 2.5 persons

How many more persons would 30 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10  times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )

It is reported that , even at the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs every year

For raising (ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs / year  ?

Enough to absorb the 12 million persons joining our job market each year ?

It is time for re-thinking our Export Strategy 

By emulating smaller neighbors , we could solve two problems , at one time !

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hemen   parekh

01  July, 2015

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Hire , when you need : Fire , when you don't !



What is the amount of investment required to create 1 Million jobs per month ? ( = No of jobseekers joining India's labour market each month )

That would depend upon the " Industry " for investment

There are some , " Capital Intensive " industries which would require a huge investment , whereas , there are some " Labour Intensive " industries , where a much smaller investment can generate 1 Million jobs

For example , to generate 1 Million jobs would need :

*  Industrial Instruments ( Labour Intensive )................... Rs  10,000  Cr
*  Boilers / Steam Generating Plants ( Capital Intensive )... Rs 500,000 Cr

{ Source : DIPP , Investment and Job Creation from Aug 1991-Mar 2014
   as reported in Times of India / 17 March , 2015  }

Of course , we don't have to create all of those 1 Million jobs per month , in just one or two industries

If we take an " Average Investment " required across ALL the industries , then , may be , we need :

Rs 200,000 Cr to generate 1 Million jobs every month

ie :   Rs 2 Lakh*Crores   per month
ie :   Rs 24 Lakh*Crores  every year

Now , who has got that kind of money to invest , even if we assume that

>  there is a " Ready Market " for all of those products , here and now ?

>  this market will not shrink in the foreseeable future  ?

Obviously , the Governments ( Central + States ) , don't  !

If we include FDI , may be Private Sector can raise that kind of money

But will it invest in " Capital Intensive " industries or in " Labour Intensive " industries ?

Given the current labour laws , it is clear that the investors will choose to invest in Capital Intensive industries

Even if that means , creation of only 1 Lakh jobs instead of 10 Lakh jobs !

At this point , it is worth researching whether USA succeeds in creating some 150,000 / 200,000  new jobs every month , due to its policy of  :

"  Hire when you need : Fire when you don't  "

Before hiring , do USA industrialists ask of themselves :

"  If things go wrong and I am forced to trim my work-force , will this recruit
   become a permanent burden ? "



Question that the Labour Laws must answer :


" What comes first ?  Creation of new jobs , or , retention of existing jobs ? "

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hemen  parekh

June 30 , 2015

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Sunday, 28 June 2015

The Greek Tragedy



With a public debt of $ 320 Billion , and unable to raise fresh loans ( to pay off old loans ) , Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy - and exit from Euro-Zone


Dire predictions are being made by the Economists / Bankers / Politicians etc , as to what will be the impact on :


*    Other debt-ridden countries like Portugal / Italy / Spain etc

*    Economies of the European lender-countries 

*    Balance Sheets of Financial Institutions ( eg : IMF / European Common Bank etc )

*    Economies of Developing countries , unable to export to Europe


But hardly anyone seems to be asking :


*    Why did Greece land itself in such a trouble ?

*    Will Spain / Portugal / Italy - and other debt-ridden countries - soon find themselves in a similar condition  ?
      

You don't need to have a Ph D in Economics to know the obvious answer  !


Greece finds itself in this trouble for the same reason that a person would , if he starts spending far in excess of his income


Usually by borrowing lots of money from friends / relatives , who , oblige without asking :


>    What is your current income ? What is your current savings ? 


>    What is likely to be your future income ?


>    What do you need this loan for ?  When - and how much - will you repay  ?



If there are no satisfactory answers , then you know that either the borrower has no capacity to repay

or , ( worse ) , no intention to repay  !



Apparently , Greeks have been living beyond their means ( income ) for many many years


Generation after generation of Greeks thought :


>   Let us enjoy today .  Why worry about tomorrow ?  Let our children worry about that  !



The 20+ something Greek youth ( of which , 26 % are unemployed ) , have " inherited " that debt of $ 320 billion , from their fore-fathers


Hence , it is reasonable for them to say :


"  Hey ,  I did not borrow / spend all that money  !  Why should I be made to suffer for the sins committed by my parents / grand parents  ?  "


Problem is not that the lenders cannot accept this argument and agree to , even write-off $ 320 billion


All that the lenders are telling the Greek Youth ( thru Greek Government ) , is :


"  No problem , but no more money either , 

   Just learn to live within your own income . Learn to fend for yourself .

   Stop living on borrowed time ( - and borrowed money ) "



Here , there is a lesson for us Indians , as well  !


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hemen  parekh  /  29 June, 2015


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Tuesday, 23 June 2015

Bank Recapitalization ?




Bank  Re-Capitalization  ?



Here is a layman's understanding :


>   Bank executives give Rs 4 Lakh Crores worth loans to   Industrialists / Businessmen ( who , sometimes happen to be close relatives / friends )

   
   

>   Bankers " forget " to examine past records of loan-repayments by these individuals 

     


>  Banks do not share among themselves info about " black-listed " borrowers


>  Banks " forget " to inquire if a loanee is a " Benami " company


>  Banks do not incorporate stringent clauses in loan agreements (on purpose )


>  Banks adopt " Forget & Forgive " approach to defaulters


>  For loan recovery , bankers wait for other  bankers to take the lead


>  Before taking action , bankers check-out with people in power


>  When sinking under the burden of NPA , bankers run to Government of India to bail them out through " Bank Re-Capitalization "

     


>  Government oblige by giving money to stressed banks, so that they can survive


>  Government rationalize its bail out by saying, " depositors must be protected " . Sounds so reassuring  !


>  Government then goes out and raises taxes ( direct + indirect ) to balance its books  ( Current Account Deficit ? )

   


In a nutshell :


>  Eventually , honest tax-payers foot the bill, one way or the other 


>  7,000 + loan-defaulting swindlers spend vacation in Switzerland with family ( and their politician friends ) - till they are ready to borrow more !


   

>  Bankers vie with each other to " Re-Schedule Payments " and advance fresh loans to pay off old loans ( Rs 4 lakh Crores of NPA ).
If EU / IMF can do this for Greece , why cannot we ?

   

>  Government will take pride in " Bold Banking Reforms "( to please IMF ? )


>  As a Nation , we are very compassionate !  We cannot let any institution die !

    We are obsessed with keeping it alive at any cost . We must ,
 forever , keep it alive with artificial ventilation / blood transfusion !

 

    It is time to re-think : 


    When a person or an Institution just cannot be kept alive , it must be allowed to die , in a dignified way !


 

    Would it not be far better to protect the small bank-depositors by returning their deposits , rather than infuse Rs 4 lakh Crores into these banks , by way of re-capitalization ?




Am I missing out on something that economists know better ?


-  hemen  parekh


   hcp@RecruitGuru.com

   www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

   June 24 , 2015 


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Sunday, 21 June 2015

Growing Faster Than China ?

There is no denying that India has made a lot of progress on the economic front during past 12 months , under structural reforms undertaken by the NDA government

But when Economists and leading Rating Agencies talk of " India's economy is growing at a rate , faster than China's " , some clarifications become necessary

Just look at the following comparison between China and India :

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Parameter       /        China       /         India

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Population     /    1.36 billion      /      1.25   billion

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

GDP              /  $ 9.24 Trillion   /     $  1.88  Trillion

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Life Expectancy  /   75.35 years    /    66.46  years

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Area            /  9.57 million Sq Km  /   2.97 million Sq Km

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Per Capita GDP    /    $  6,807     /     $ 1,498 

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GDP Increase   / @ 7% = $ 647 Billion /  @ 8% = $ 150 Billion 

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Now , of course , it is entirely possible for India's absolute GDP increase to overtake China's absolute GDP increase , if

>  China's growth-rate keeps declining ( > 6  % > 5 % > 4 % > 3 % .... )

and ,

>  India's growth-rate keeps accelerating ( > 9 %  > 10 % > 11 % ......... )


Except that you don't have to be an Economist to guess that no such thing will ever happen  !


It is not that I love NDA less

It is just that I love enlightenment more  !


---  hemen  parekh

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

21  June   2015

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Monday, 8 June 2015

World Migration Day

World    Migration    Day


In 5 months ( Jan-May 2015 ), some 50,000 migrants from North Africa , crossed Mediterranean Sea in rickety boats, to land on shores of Italy

That is some 10,000 per month ( soon reaching 100,000 per month ? )

Irrespective of EU countries' decision to admit only 20,000 per year , by 2020  this figure could reach 1 MILLION per month !

Why this huge migration ?


Apparent Reasons :


>   ISIL is terrorizing Syria / Iraq

>   Boko Haram are doing the same in Nigeria

>   Houthies are following both in Yemen

>   Libya is facing a civil war

>   North and South Sudans are at war

>   Tunisia is boiling with massive unrest

>   Taliban is rearing its ugly head in Afghanistan

>   Egypt is simmering with angst against Muslim Brotherhood

>   Pakistan is becoming terrorists' training ground

>   Turkey / Lebanon / Jordan are getting overrun with refugees

>   All over Mid-East , Shias and Sunnis are fighting


In short , most of African and Mid-East countries are exploding with local wars , under Europe's soft underbelly and porous right borders



 Real Reasons :


Millions of citizens of these countries are facing unemployment and consequent starvation ( when not getting killed by terrorists )

It is no different with migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar trying to find shelter in Indonesia / Philippines / Australia / Thailand



Closer  At  home  :


Of entire World's 800 million " malnourished " ( euphemism for " starving " )  people , 200 million are in India

Only , instead of calling them " Starving " people , we choose to call them , " Naxalites / Maoists " etc !

We fail to realize that there can be no political solution to " Starvation " !

Where can they migrate ? There is no " Promised Land " on India's borders !



Solution  ?

Since no developed country wants to admit migrants from poor countries , let UNO declare , Antarctica as " United States of Migrants " - USM

And fix quotas of migrants that each poor country can dispatch to USM each year ( - roughly in proportion to " Starving " population of each poor country )

Then contribute funds for creating settlements in Antarctica ( - in any case , due to Global Warming , ice-shelves are melting and soon Antarctica will become habitable ) . 

For the rich countries , this would be the most , economically and socially viable solution


Let a beginning be made by declaring 27 June , as


World  Migration  Day  "



hemen parekh

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09 June 2015

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Sunday, 7 June 2015

The Bitter Truth

After 44 years , India and Bangladesh have settled their boundary dispute by exchanging a few thousand acres of land

Hopefully , this will end illegal migration / export of militancy etc , besides giving legitimate citizenship to 50,000 , so far stateless , persons


Will this settlement lead to ,

>  huge economic loss to either of the countries  ?

>  increase in terrorist activities / illegal infiltration ?

>  significant reduction of national security  ?


Clear answer is :  NO  !


If anything , it will vastly improve neighborly relations and benefit the people of both the countries

Why can't we resolve our " Kashmir Border Dispute " with Pakistan , in a similar manner ?

By both countries accepting the Line of Actual Control ( LaC ) as an International Boundary ?

In the past 60 years , I remember only 3 Indians to have the courage to suggest / support such a solution ( not counting insignificant , myself ). They were :

>  Vasant Sathe

>  Faroukh Abdullah

>  Prashant Bhushan


Reason is simple as to why a military action to regain lost territory ( both sides claim to own the entire Kashmir ) , just won't work for the following reasons :


>  An all out war will cause loss of millions of lives on both sides

>  Intervention of UN / America / Russia / China will create a fresh limbo 

    ( political stalemate / comma ) without a permanent resolution

>  It may end-up creating an independent country of " Kashmir " - something

     that neither India / Pakistan want, nor will help the Kashmiris 


If this is so crystal-clear , then what is stopping the politicians of both the countries to pursue this path  ?

Simple !

Lack of courage due to fear  of losing power  !

Unless Shri Narendra Modi and Shri Nawaz Sharif muster the courage to tell - and sell - this bitter  truth to their countrymen !

What next  ?  Arunachal Pradesh  vs  Aksai  Chin  ?


---  hemen   parekh

     B2BmessageBlaster

     08  June   2015 

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Saturday, 6 June 2015

Barking Up The Wrong Tree ?

Not having eaten Maggi in past 10 years , I have no love lost for this packaged food

But I keep asking myself :

" Aren't we barking up the wrong tree  ?  "

What about :

>   Hundreds of other so-called packaged foods being sold by millions of tons by Farsanwalas 
     on every street corner , under filthiest of conditions ?

>  Thousands of tons of Pav-Bhaji / Vada Pav , being sold by hawkers on every footpath , with 
     swarms of bees / mosquitoes camping right on these foods ?

>  Tons of Papad being " manufactured " in most unhygienic conditions - on top of gutters to enable
     quick drying   ?

>   And what about the way your favorite Bhel Puri / Chat get made on Mumbai beaches  ?

>  Hundreds of tons of adulterated Ghee being sold in open market ?

>  Have you seen the aluminum containers in which your milk is delivered by Bhaiyyaji  ?

>  Have you ever peeped inside a road-side " Bakery "  ?

I can go on and on ! The list would motivate you to give-up on all food articles sold in India !

Of course , there can be no forgiveness for Maggi , if it contains more than permitted levels of lead /
MSG etc

But is anything being done for  adulterated hooch which kills hundreds every year  ?

Is this some kind of a motivated campaign by rivals or have we just lost all sense of proportion ?

Then , it is also possible that some politicians / netas / bureaucrats , are trying to impress the gaulible
people !

-   hemen  parekh
   
   B2BmessageBlaster

   07  June  2015

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