The New Maths ?

The new maths is :

Less Rich = Less Poor

But,

Rich does not equal Poor !

Here is how :

A few lakh Black Money holders possess , some Rs 14 lakh*crore worth of OLD notes ( Rs 500 / 1000 ) in their cabinets / vaults

But all that they dare to deposit officially in their bank accounts , will be Rs 4000 crore , trying to stay under the Scrutiny Limit of Rs 2.5 lakh, to avoid tax / penalty / jail

So how will they get around to " save " their black money ?

By sacrificing some 30 % ( " Hawala Rate " being reported by all news papers and TV channels for past 2 days ) , in order to salvage 70 %

Not too difficult if you consider that , our country " boasts " of some 40 Crore potential hawala operators !

I refer to those 40 crore Indians below the official Poverty Line ( having expenditure of Rs 32 per day in Rural areas and Rs 47 per day in Urban areas )

Can Black Money holders succeed in convincing these 40 crore persons to go / deposit in their Jan Dhan Bank Accounts ( government claims that 99 % of Indians - including these 40 crores , now have a bank account ) , just Rs 1 lakh each ?

That would take care of some Rs 40 lakh*crore worth of OLD notes !

Of course , those 40 crore persons would be expected to withdraw ( after some time ) , Rs 70,000 ( 70 % of deposit ) in NEW notes and return to the Black Money holders !

And with the remaining Rs 30,000 in their bank accounts , these poor persons can now start spending every day ( say ) Rs 50 - way above the official Poverty Line !

With one fell swoop ( of demonetization ) , government might have managed to lift 40 crore Indians , ABOVE the official Poverty Line !

No mean achievement , by any standard !

Black Money holders would become less rich but poor people would become less poor !

Now we know , that Shahukars ( unauthorized money lenders ) in our small towns and villages , have lent thousands of crores of rupees to needy poor ( to whom , Banks would not lend since they have nothing to pledge by way of security )

These crores have been lent in Rs 500 / 1000 notes

And the Shahukars will accept " repayments ", only in Rs 500 / 1000 notes !

It is possible that these Shahukars will tell the borrowers :

" You owe me Rs 50,000 but you are unable to return that sum

  Now , take this Rs 1 lakh ( in OLD notes ) and go / deposit in your Jan Dhan bank account

  After 1 month , withdraw Rs 50,000 ( in NEW notes ) and return to me as your repayment

  of that loan . 

I will tear off that LOAN DOCUMENT in front of your eyes ! "

Would you say a " win - win situation "  for both !

Such a " generous offer " on part of the Shahukars , might even save thousands of farmers from committing suicides !

May be every dark cloud has a silver lining !

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11  Nov  2016

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs