Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Tuesday, 30 June 2015

Export Strategy ?



News reports are agonizing over the declining figures of exports for the past 6 months - month after month

There is no doubt , among many corrective actions being undertaken by the Central Government , promoting exports from MSME , is one

No need to look far, for a reason for this emphasis

Just look at how much MSME in our neighboring countries are exporting :

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Country         /     No of  MSME     /     Ave Export / year ( $ )
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Singapore     /    9,296                /       6.74    Million

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Malaysia       /    28,840               /       2.05    Million 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S.Korea        /    2.9 million           /       45 , 000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

India            /   30 million        /          4, 000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Now , even if each of our MSME succeeds in exporting just $ 40,000 worth of exports per year , that would amount to ,

$ 40,000*30 million  !


Currently each MSME ( on an average ) employs 2.5 persons

How many more persons would 30 million MSME need to employ , if each were to raise exports by 10  times ? ( from $ 4000 to $ 40,000 )

It is reported that , even at the current level of operations , India's MSME sector creates 1.3 million jobs every year

For raising (ave) MSME exports by 10 times , would that figure go up to 13 million new jobs / year  ?

Enough to absorb the 12 million persons joining our job market each year ?

It is time for re-thinking our Export Strategy 

By emulating smaller neighbors , we could solve two problems , at one time !

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen   parekh

01  July, 2015

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Hire , when you need : Fire , when you don't !



What is the amount of investment required to create 1 Million jobs per month ? ( = No of jobseekers joining India's labour market each month )

That would depend upon the " Industry " for investment

There are some , " Capital Intensive " industries which would require a huge investment , whereas , there are some " Labour Intensive " industries , where a much smaller investment can generate 1 Million jobs

For example , to generate 1 Million jobs would need :

*  Industrial Instruments ( Labour Intensive )................... Rs  10,000  Cr
*  Boilers / Steam Generating Plants ( Capital Intensive )... Rs 500,000 Cr

{ Source : DIPP , Investment and Job Creation from Aug 1991-Mar 2014
   as reported in Times of India / 17 March , 2015  }

Of course , we don't have to create all of those 1 Million jobs per month , in just one or two industries

If we take an " Average Investment " required across ALL the industries , then , may be , we need :

Rs 200,000 Cr to generate 1 Million jobs every month

ie :   Rs 2 Lakh*Crores   per month
ie :   Rs 24 Lakh*Crores  every year

Now , who has got that kind of money to invest , even if we assume that

>  there is a " Ready Market " for all of those products , here and now ?

>  this market will not shrink in the foreseeable future  ?

Obviously , the Governments ( Central + States ) , don't  !

If we include FDI , may be Private Sector can raise that kind of money

But will it invest in " Capital Intensive " industries or in " Labour Intensive " industries ?

Given the current labour laws , it is clear that the investors will choose to invest in Capital Intensive industries

Even if that means , creation of only 1 Lakh jobs instead of 10 Lakh jobs !

At this point , it is worth researching whether USA succeeds in creating some 150,000 / 200,000  new jobs every month , due to its policy of  :

"  Hire when you need : Fire when you don't  "

Before hiring , do USA industrialists ask of themselves :

"  If things go wrong and I am forced to trim my work-force , will this recruit
   become a permanent burden ? "



Question that the Labour Laws must answer :


" What comes first ?  Creation of new jobs , or , retention of existing jobs ? "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh

June 30 , 2015

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Sunday, 28 June 2015

The Greek Tragedy



With a public debt of $ 320 Billion , and unable to raise fresh loans ( to pay off old loans ) , Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy - and exit from Euro-Zone


Dire predictions are being made by the Economists / Bankers / Politicians etc , as to what will be the impact on :


*    Other debt-ridden countries like Portugal / Italy / Spain etc

*    Economies of the European lender-countries 

*    Balance Sheets of Financial Institutions ( eg : IMF / European Common Bank etc )

*    Economies of Developing countries , unable to export to Europe


But hardly anyone seems to be asking :


*    Why did Greece land itself in such a trouble ?

*    Will Spain / Portugal / Italy - and other debt-ridden countries - soon find themselves in a similar condition  ?
      

You don't need to have a Ph D in Economics to know the obvious answer  !


Greece finds itself in this trouble for the same reason that a person would , if he starts spending far in excess of his income


Usually by borrowing lots of money from friends / relatives , who , oblige without asking :


>    What is your current income ? What is your current savings ? 


>    What is likely to be your future income ?


>    What do you need this loan for ?  When - and how much - will you repay  ?



If there are no satisfactory answers , then you know that either the borrower has no capacity to repay

or , ( worse ) , no intention to repay  !



Apparently , Greeks have been living beyond their means ( income ) for many many years


Generation after generation of Greeks thought :


>   Let us enjoy today .  Why worry about tomorrow ?  Let our children worry about that  !



The 20+ something Greek youth ( of which , 26 % are unemployed ) , have " inherited " that debt of $ 320 billion , from their fore-fathers


Hence , it is reasonable for them to say :


"  Hey ,  I did not borrow / spend all that money  !  Why should I be made to suffer for the sins committed by my parents / grand parents  ?  "


Problem is not that the lenders cannot accept this argument and agree to , even write-off $ 320 billion


All that the lenders are telling the Greek Youth ( thru Greek Government ) , is :


"  No problem , but no more money either , 

   Just learn to live within your own income . Learn to fend for yourself .

   Stop living on borrowed time ( - and borrowed money ) "



Here , there is a lesson for us Indians , as well  !


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

hemen  parekh  /  29 June, 2015


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Tuesday, 23 June 2015

Bank Recapitalization ?




Bank  Re-Capitalization  ?



Here is a layman's understanding :


>   Bank executives give Rs 4 Lakh Crores worth loans to   Industrialists / Businessmen ( who , sometimes happen to be close relatives / friends )

   
   

>   Bankers " forget " to examine past records of loan-repayments by these individuals 

     


>  Banks do not share among themselves info about " black-listed " borrowers


>  Banks " forget " to inquire if a loanee is a " Benami " company


>  Banks do not incorporate stringent clauses in loan agreements (on purpose )


>  Banks adopt " Forget & Forgive " approach to defaulters


>  For loan recovery , bankers wait for other  bankers to take the lead


>  Before taking action , bankers check-out with people in power


>  When sinking under the burden of NPA , bankers run to Government of India to bail them out through " Bank Re-Capitalization "

     


>  Government oblige by giving money to stressed banks, so that they can survive


>  Government rationalize its bail out by saying, " depositors must be protected " . Sounds so reassuring  !


>  Government then goes out and raises taxes ( direct + indirect ) to balance its books  ( Current Account Deficit ? )

   


In a nutshell :


>  Eventually , honest tax-payers foot the bill, one way or the other 


>  7,000 + loan-defaulting swindlers spend vacation in Switzerland with family ( and their politician friends ) - till they are ready to borrow more !


   

>  Bankers vie with each other to " Re-Schedule Payments " and advance fresh loans to pay off old loans ( Rs 4 lakh Crores of NPA ).
If EU / IMF can do this for Greece , why cannot we ?

   

>  Government will take pride in " Bold Banking Reforms "( to please IMF ? )


>  As a Nation , we are very compassionate !  We cannot let any institution die !

    We are obsessed with keeping it alive at any cost . We must ,
 forever , keep it alive with artificial ventilation / blood transfusion !

 

    It is time to re-think : 


    When a person or an Institution just cannot be kept alive , it must be allowed to die , in a dignified way !


 

    Would it not be far better to protect the small bank-depositors by returning their deposits , rather than infuse Rs 4 lakh Crores into these banks , by way of re-capitalization ?




Am I missing out on something that economists know better ?


-  hemen  parekh


   hcp@RecruitGuru.com

   www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

   June 24 , 2015 


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Sunday, 21 June 2015

Growing Faster Than China ?

There is no denying that India has made a lot of progress on the economic front during past 12 months , under structural reforms undertaken by the NDA government

But when Economists and leading Rating Agencies talk of " India's economy is growing at a rate , faster than China's " , some clarifications become necessary

Just look at the following comparison between China and India :

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Parameter       /        China       /         India

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Population     /    1.36 billion      /      1.25   billion

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

GDP              /  $ 9.24 Trillion   /     $  1.88  Trillion

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Life Expectancy  /   75.35 years    /    66.46  years

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Area            /  9.57 million Sq Km  /   2.97 million Sq Km

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Per Capita GDP    /    $  6,807     /     $ 1,498 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GDP Increase   / @ 7% = $ 647 Billion /  @ 8% = $ 150 Billion 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now , of course , it is entirely possible for India's absolute GDP increase to overtake China's absolute GDP increase , if

>  China's growth-rate keeps declining ( > 6  % > 5 % > 4 % > 3 % .... )

and ,

>  India's growth-rate keeps accelerating ( > 9 %  > 10 % > 11 % ......... )


Except that you don't have to be an Economist to guess that no such thing will ever happen  !


It is not that I love NDA less

It is just that I love enlightenment more  !


---  hemen  parekh

www.B2BmessageBlaster.com

21  June   2015

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Monday, 8 June 2015

World Migration Day

World    Migration    Day


In 5 months ( Jan-May 2015 ), some 50,000 migrants from North Africa , crossed Mediterranean Sea in rickety boats, to land on shores of Italy

That is some 10,000 per month ( soon reaching 100,000 per month ? )

Irrespective of EU countries' decision to admit only 20,000 per year , by 2020  this figure could reach 1 MILLION per month !

Why this huge migration ?


Apparent Reasons :


>   ISIL is terrorizing Syria / Iraq

>   Boko Haram are doing the same in Nigeria

>   Houthies are following both in Yemen

>   Libya is facing a civil war

>   North and South Sudans are at war

>   Tunisia is boiling with massive unrest

>   Taliban is rearing its ugly head in Afghanistan

>   Egypt is simmering with angst against Muslim Brotherhood

>   Pakistan is becoming terrorists' training ground

>   Turkey / Lebanon / Jordan are getting overrun with refugees

>   All over Mid-East , Shias and Sunnis are fighting


In short , most of African and Mid-East countries are exploding with local wars , under Europe's soft underbelly and porous right borders



 Real Reasons :


Millions of citizens of these countries are facing unemployment and consequent starvation ( when not getting killed by terrorists )

It is no different with migrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar trying to find shelter in Indonesia / Philippines / Australia / Thailand



Closer  At  home  :


Of entire World's 800 million " malnourished " ( euphemism for " starving " )  people , 200 million are in India

Only , instead of calling them " Starving " people , we choose to call them , " Naxalites / Maoists " etc !

We fail to realize that there can be no political solution to " Starvation " !

Where can they migrate ? There is no " Promised Land " on India's borders !



Solution  ?

Since no developed country wants to admit migrants from poor countries , let UNO declare , Antarctica as " United States of Migrants " - USM

And fix quotas of migrants that each poor country can dispatch to USM each year ( - roughly in proportion to " Starving " population of each poor country )

Then contribute funds for creating settlements in Antarctica ( - in any case , due to Global Warming , ice-shelves are melting and soon Antarctica will become habitable ) . 

For the rich countries , this would be the most , economically and socially viable solution


Let a beginning be made by declaring 27 June , as


World  Migration  Day  "



hemen parekh

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09 June 2015

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Sunday, 7 June 2015

The Bitter Truth

After 44 years , India and Bangladesh have settled their boundary dispute by exchanging a few thousand acres of land

Hopefully , this will end illegal migration / export of militancy etc , besides giving legitimate citizenship to 50,000 , so far stateless , persons


Will this settlement lead to ,

>  huge economic loss to either of the countries  ?

>  increase in terrorist activities / illegal infiltration ?

>  significant reduction of national security  ?


Clear answer is :  NO  !


If anything , it will vastly improve neighborly relations and benefit the people of both the countries

Why can't we resolve our " Kashmir Border Dispute " with Pakistan , in a similar manner ?

By both countries accepting the Line of Actual Control ( LaC ) as an International Boundary ?

In the past 60 years , I remember only 3 Indians to have the courage to suggest / support such a solution ( not counting insignificant , myself ). They were :

>  Vasant Sathe

>  Faroukh Abdullah

>  Prashant Bhushan


Reason is simple as to why a military action to regain lost territory ( both sides claim to own the entire Kashmir ) , just won't work for the following reasons :


>  An all out war will cause loss of millions of lives on both sides

>  Intervention of UN / America / Russia / China will create a fresh limbo 

    ( political stalemate / comma ) without a permanent resolution

>  It may end-up creating an independent country of " Kashmir " - something

     that neither India / Pakistan want, nor will help the Kashmiris 


If this is so crystal-clear , then what is stopping the politicians of both the countries to pursue this path  ?

Simple !

Lack of courage due to fear  of losing power  !

Unless Shri Narendra Modi and Shri Nawaz Sharif muster the courage to tell - and sell - this bitter  truth to their countrymen !

What next  ?  Arunachal Pradesh  vs  Aksai  Chin  ?


---  hemen   parekh

     B2BmessageBlaster

     08  June   2015 

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Saturday, 6 June 2015

Barking Up The Wrong Tree ?

Not having eaten Maggi in past 10 years , I have no love lost for this packaged food

But I keep asking myself :

" Aren't we barking up the wrong tree  ?  "

What about :

>   Hundreds of other so-called packaged foods being sold by millions of tons by Farsanwalas 
     on every street corner , under filthiest of conditions ?

>  Thousands of tons of Pav-Bhaji / Vada Pav , being sold by hawkers on every footpath , with 
     swarms of bees / mosquitoes camping right on these foods ?

>  Tons of Papad being " manufactured " in most unhygienic conditions - on top of gutters to enable
     quick drying   ?

>   And what about the way your favorite Bhel Puri / Chat get made on Mumbai beaches  ?

>  Hundreds of tons of adulterated Ghee being sold in open market ?

>  Have you seen the aluminum containers in which your milk is delivered by Bhaiyyaji  ?

>  Have you ever peeped inside a road-side " Bakery "  ?

I can go on and on ! The list would motivate you to give-up on all food articles sold in India !

Of course , there can be no forgiveness for Maggi , if it contains more than permitted levels of lead /
MSG etc

But is anything being done for  adulterated hooch which kills hundreds every year  ?

Is this some kind of a motivated campaign by rivals or have we just lost all sense of proportion ?

Then , it is also possible that some politicians / netas / bureaucrats , are trying to impress the gaulible
people !

-   hemen  parekh
   
   B2BmessageBlaster

   07  June  2015

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