Thursday, 30 March 2017

Robotation



Although I could not find a precise meaning , in simple terms , I suppose Robotation could mean “ Robotic Automation “ or Robot based Automation


Automation itself goes back hundreds of years . Even Grandma’s table clock was an early example of simple automation


But , even after watching you get up at 6 am every morning for 10 days, it would not wake you up at 6 am on the 11th day , on its own !


Or remind you about a hundred other things you do every day, without being asked !


Today’s smart watches do such “ mundane “ things automatically !


Hardly a day passes without some scientist claiming to have come up with a method to enable our mere thoughts to control a toy / a vacuum cleaner / a drone / a smart phone etc !


Times of India ( 28 March 2017 ) carries following news about the latest “ Invasion “ of robots :

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“ A brick-laying robot that can lay 3,000 bricks in a day – against some 500 bricks that a skilled mason can lay


This devices have started replacing humans on some sites in US and about to invade UK


From the computer aided design ( CAD ) of a house structure, the Hadrian X robotic brick layer will be able to handle the automatic loading, cutting, routing and placement of all bricks to build a complete structure


Some of Britain’s biggest construction firms have warned that this automation of the industry is likely to result in mass layoffs !


Considering that a human bricklayer in UK / USA , earns $ 50 per hour ( approx. Rs 3,500 ), this was expected !


Delivery of the first commercial prototype of Hadrian X is due later this year  

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That is about the time L&T will start the redevelopment of 100 + BDD Chawls in Mumbai


  
Now , if L&T imports this Robotic Bricklayer for re-constructing BDD chawls , it could be for the reason that it could not import  even superior technology  called 3 D Printing of Multi-Storied buildings , either from WinSun ( China ) or from Apis Cor ( Russia ) !



WHY  ARE  COMPANIES  AROUND  THE  WORLD  RUSHING IN  TO  REPLACE  HUMAN WORKERS   WITH   ROBOTS  ?


REASON # 1 :

·         Wages are rising at a rate far greater than the rise in worker productivity

      { http://latterstolntemployee.blogspot.in/2013/07/scala-mobile-escalator.html }

 

      Let HR manager of any company in the organized sector , plot a graph ( such as

      shown in above link ) , for the past 5 years , for his company !

 

      REASON # 2  :

 

·         As compared to human workers , Robots are far less “ Demanding “ and far more accommodating ( versatile ) !

 

        Read :  Second  Industrial  Revolution  ?  (  21  Sept  2015  )

       { https://myblogepage.blogspot.in/2015/09/second-industrial-revolution.html }

 

 

       REASON  #  3  :

·         At a very fast pace , Artificial Intelligence , embedded into Robots , is overtaking the Human Intelligence , through a process of “ Internal Self Learning


Read :  Between  DeepMind and  Deep Sea  ?  ( 15  Feb  2017  )





IS  AUTOMATION  INESCAPABLE  ?


·         Yes !  Automation is Inescapable ( 30  Nov  2016  )



All that we can – and MUST – do , is to mitigate its ill-effects by implementing,







WILL  ROBOTS  ENSLAVE  HUMANS  ?  EVEN  DESTROY  THE  MANKIND  ?


·         This scenario is very much within the realm of possibility


But it is possible to prevent this , by implementing ,


Thou  Shall Not  Kill  ( 14  April  2016 )






31  March  2017


Kratoh: Smarah: / Deeds will be remembered



A news report in Economic Times ( 27 March 2017 ) reads :




Shri Adityanath has asked all departments to come up with a plan to prioritise tasks that can be delivered within the first 100 days of the government , to reflect a “ visible change “ on the ground




People of this country are fed up of platitudes and “ motherhood is good “ type of promises !


They are demanding that the Ministers / Secretaries , set for themselves individually , ( and not for their departments collectively ) , TARGETS which are QUANTIFIABLE / TIME BOUND / MEASURABLE



Dear  Shri  Adityanathji  :

You may want to ask your officers to draw up TARGETS as explained in my following email to Shri Jaitleyji ( - who has made a beginning by introducing OUTCOME BUDGET , starting 2017-18, – and for which , he deserves congratulations ! )






5 December 2014



BUDGETING     BY    OBJECTIVES



Dear Shri Jaitleyji ,



Come Feb 2015 and you will present your Budget in Lok Sabha


You will allocate thousands of crores of rupees to different ministries , for spending during 2015-16


You may even increase / decrease their allocations based on , to what extent ( % ) did they manage to actually " spend " their current year's allocations


The one and only emphasis is on " spending " !



As usual , no MP will ask :


"  But , what exactly did the Minister concerned achieve by spending this money  ?


What physical / measureable targets did the Minister succeed in reaching / exceeding , with that money  ?


Where / What are the OUTPUTS  ?




Why is it that no targets were set in advance, before the start of the year ?



How come , Minister was allowed to shoot first and then draw concentric circles around the hole afterwards ( at the end of the year ) , to claim BULL'S EYE  ?  "




In private sector , shareholders / bankers do not hesitate to sack the CMD / MD / CEO , if he fails to deliver on promised profit



Then , why are Ministers allowed to retain their posts ( - or even get kicked upstairs ! ), despite failing to deliver  ?




Dear Shri Jaitleyji :



MPs should know that YOU cannot answer these questions , simply because , at the time of the Budget Exercise , no physical OUTPUTS  got fixed for each Minister



What did get fixed , were only EXPENDITURE TARGETS  !



Simply because MPs passed the Budget without fixing targets such as following for 31 March 2015 :




*  Finance Minister

   *   GDP ..... 6 % ............ [ 10 % improvement ]
   *   CAD.......( -  ) 5 % .....[  20 % improvement ]



*  Commerce Minister

   *   Exports........ $ 350 Billion  ....  [ 10 % improvement  ]
   *   FDI..............$    50 Billion...... [  20 % improvement  ]



*   Railway Minister

    *   Lengths of Tracks...... 125,000 Km.....      [  Up by 10 %  ]
    *   No of Passenger Trains / day..... 10,000... [ Up by 10 % ]



*   Health Minister

   *   Chronic Hunger and Hunger Related Deaths
         8 Million / year .................................... [  Down by 20 %  ]
   *   Under-nourished people..... 200 million..... [ Down by 10 % ]



*   Social Welfare Minister

    *    Dowery Deaths / year....... 8,000...... ......[  Down by 10 %  ]
    *    People without Toilets........ 500 Million....  [ Down by  20 % ]



*   Agriculture Minister

    *    Farmers Suicide/ year..... .. 14,000...............  [ Down by 20 %  ]
    *    Food Grain rotting / year..... 5 Million tons.....  [ Down by 20 %   ]



So on and so forth for each Minister



Some caution / suggestions :



*    Ignore the numbers given above. I could be factually wrong


*    Focus on the concept of " Management by Objectives "


*    Overcome the fear of " failure to meet the targets ".


*    Overcome the fear of " being ridiculed " !


*    Don't chop off the neck that dares to stick out  !


*    Only failure is , not fixing the targets  !


*    Actual vs Targeted achievements must be measured , on an ongoing
      basis , by totally independent THIRD PARTY agencies



      Ministers / Finance Minister and these Agencies , must agree in advance , how the

      Agencies will go about " measuring " the Actual Achievements



      The method of measurement must be transparent and well publicized
      in advance



      Agencies shall have no role in fixing of Annual Targets



      That is best done by the Prime Minister - the CEO , MakeInIndia



*    There must be at least 10 performance parameters for each Minister



*    Parameters themselves could be selected / prioritized , based on an
      ONLINE PUBLIC SURVEY / OPINION POLL , from Govt web site



*    If conducting such an ONLINE POLL for the forthcoming budget is
      too late , same could be done on a printed form , by current MPs /
      MLAs / Rajya Sabha Members



*    Results of the SURVEY / POLL , must be published






30  March  2017


Wednesday, 29 March 2017

Best out of a Bad Bargain ?



Yesterday Supreme Court decided that vehicles conforming to BS 3 emission standards , cannot be sold / registered , starting 01 April 2017


Vehicle manufacturers are stuck with an inventory of some 8 lakh BS 3 vehicles , valued at Rs 14,000 crore



Manufacturers are left with the following 3 options :


·         Scrap the BS 3 vehicles ( after salvaging whatever parts they can )


·         Upgrade the vehicles to meet BS 4 standard (  technically doubtful  )


·         Export vehicles to countries where these are still acceptable ( very doubtful  )



Allow me to offer a 4th option , for serious consideration by :


·         Vehicle Manufacturers / their Associations / Car Dealers


·         Central / State Governments


·         The Supreme Court



My following suggestion is based on these  assumptions :

·         BS 3 vehicles are less polluting than BS1 / BS 2 , vehicles

·         Out of our current vehicle population of some 200 million vehicles , at least 10 million vehicles still polluting our climate, are only BS1 / BS 2 compliant



Out of these , Shri Nitin Gadkariji wants to replace 6 million ( of course, with BS 4 / BS 6 vehicles ) , by 2020 , under a “ Old Vehicle Replacement Scheme “ , which offers,


     #  heavy discount ( in purchase price ) to the buyer ( who surrenders his OLD /    POLLUTING vehicle to a government approved / authorised scrap dealer )

     #  heavy subsidy to the Vehicle Manufacturers for replacing those old vehicles



I suggest that :


·         Vehicle Manufacturers Association file a REVIEW PETITION in the Supreme Court


·         Review Petition would request Supreme Court to modify its order as follows :



      #  Inventory of 8 lakh BS 3 vehicles can be sold at a  discount to buyers who come forward to get their old BS 1 / BS 2 vehicles replaced with this inventory

        
      #  Discounts ( over current sale price ) will be :


·         25 % for vehicles which are 5 years old


·         50 % for vehicles which are 10 years old


·         75 % for vehicles which are 15 years old


      #  These 8 lakh BS 3 vehicles can only be sold to the current owners of old BS 1 / BS 2 vehicles , which are still plying on our roads


      #   These can be sold only when the buyer hands over ( a kind of “ Exchange Scheme “ ) , his old vehicle , along with the Registration Book , to the Dealer


     #    Buyers will also sign an undertaking that he shall not RE-SELL such a replaced BS 3 vehicle for 5 years to anyone else


·         Considering that lesser the number of “ Privately Owned Cars “ and more the number of “ Public Cars / Buses “ as taxies  on the roads , means lesser the pollution , Supreme Court should also allow sale of these 8 lakh BS 3 vehicles to Taxi operators / Fleet operators / Car Transport Service Aggregators etc , at a flat 25 % discount ( without exchange ) .



I estimate that this relaxation would remove from our roads , some 20 lakhPrivately Owned Cars “ , whose utilization is hardly 5 % of the time !



·         Apart from this , Supreme Court may direct that the Central government and the State governments , replace all of their own old BS1 / BS 2 , with the inventory of BS 3 vehicles lying with the manufacturers


For such replacement , manufacturers to give 50 % discount to the governments


Whereas , Shri Gadkariji’s OLD VEHICLE REPLACEMENT SCHEME , has met with a lot of opposition from both , the vehicle manufacturers as well as the old car owners , I believe my proposal would be welcomed by all concerned ( for the obvious benefit that each party stands to reap ! )



Dear Shri Gadkariji :


A phone call from you to SIAM Secretary , telling him of your willingness to make NDA government a party to the REVIEW PETITION , would provide a great relief !




30  March  2017