In 2014,
Tony Seba authored :
In this seminal work , he writes :
Page
13 / 14 :
Solar photovoltaic ( PV ) panels have a
learning curve of 22 per
cent . PV production costs have dropped 22 per cent with every doubling
of of the infrastructure
By 2020, as the market for solar expands, solar will
improve its cost basis relative to oil by 12,000 TIMES
Page
20 / 21 :
On a clear afternoon on May 25, 2012, solar in
Germany generated 22 GW
, which represented a THIRD
of the entire country’s power needs
The following afternoon, solar generated
fully 50 % of
Germany’s power , breaking previous day’s world record
In Germany… solar energy drove German
wholesale electricity
costs DOWN by more than 40 % in 2013, compared with 2008
On November 3, 2013, WIND generated more than 100 % of the power demand
in Denmark
Half way around the world, Australia has
set a few world records of its own : ONE MILLION solar installations in about FOUR YEARS
Page
22 :
The installed capacity of solar photovoltaic around the world has
grown from 1.4 GW in the year 2000 to 141 GW at the end of 2013 . This translates
to a global Compound Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR ) of 43 %
Page
25 ;
In 1970, solar PV panels cost $ 100 per Watt . By 1973 it fell to $
20 per watt
By 2013,
the market price of PV panels was about 65 CENTS per Watt ( a factor of 154 since 1970 )
VINDICATION :
Hindustan Times ( 16 March 2017 ) carries a news report
titled :
“ Solar Module prices may fall 20 % this year “
Sanjeev Aggarwal ( MD and CEO , Amplus Energy Solutions
) says ,
“ Prices ( of solar modules ) are likely
to continue to fall and in the second half of this year, tier-1 module prices
are likely to be between 27
– 30 CENTS ( per watt peak ) “
Deepak Agrawala ( Analyst , Elara Securities ) says,
“ While prices in China have fallen 11 – 13 % , those in South
East Asia and Taiwan are down 17 – 20 % ; it is difficult to infer that this magnitude of
decline may continue “
In India , installed solar power had crossed 9 GW as of
December and is likely to DOUBLE
to 18 GW in 2017
Modules make for nearly 60 % of a Solar Power Project’s total cost
and their prices fell by about 26 % in 2016 alone
While China reported solar installations of about 34 GW
in 2016, it is only likely to add about 28 GW in 2017 , putting downward
pressure on prices
Module prices for tier-1 manufacturers
are currently around 31-32
CENTS per watt peak ( Wp )
The report said :
Global demand is expected to be nearly stagnant in 2017
even as several large suppliers have announced significant expansions . We believe that 2017
is likely to end with prices in the range of 25-26 CENTS / Wp
HOW SHOULD
INDIA SEIZE THIS
OPPORTUNITY ?
Read :
16 March
2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs
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